I don’t include the Monty Hall problem in my course, but I have found that a student or someone who knows that I’m teaching inductive logic will sometimes ask about it. That happened recently, and, in the process of explaining the solution, we discussed a couple of ways of explaining the solution that I haven’t seen […]

Read More# making probabilistic predictions

Fivethirtyeight.com has an online prediction game for the 2017 NFL season: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/ . Participants make a for each game (e.g., Cincinnati has a 59 percent chance of winning against Indianapolis), and after the game has been played, the prediction is scored using Brier scores that are adapted to a -75 to +25 scale. (So that 59 […]

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