I don’t include the Monty Hall problem in my course, but I have found that, sometimes, someone who knows that I’m teaching inductive logic will ask about it. That happened recently, and we ended up discussed a couple of ways of explaining the solution that I haven’t seen before. So here they are—but first, a quick explanation […]

Read More# making probabilistic predictions

Fivethirtyeight.com has an online prediction game for the 2017 NFL season: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/ . Participants make a probabilistic prediction for each game (e.g., Cincinnati has a 59 percent chance of winning against Indianapolis), and after the game has been played, the prediction is scored using Brier scores that are adapted to a -75 to +25 scale. (So […]

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