• Home Archive for January, 2018


Premise 1 of the induction by confirmation (in chapter 2) should begin with “The hypothesis is …” or “The hypothesis is the following.” If that premise simply states the hypothesis, then the hypothesis can be repeated in the conclusion and the argument will be valid. On p. 66, in line 3 of premise 2, it […]

Read More

making probabilistic predictions, continued

There’s a post about the NFL predictions game that I had my students try here. Although they were making predictions every week, I didn’t integrate it into the class at all. (I considered having them figure out how the scores were determined and then discussing it in class–using scaled Brier scores, which is kind of […]

Read More