videos on the probability rules
The first video is a quick introduction to the probability rules. The second one goes through the special disjunction and the general conjunction rules, and the third is on the general disjunction rule.
Read Moremaking probabilistic predictions
Fivethirtyeight.com has an online prediction game for the 2017 NFL season: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/ . Participants make a probabilistic prediction for each game (e.g., Cincinnati has a 59 percent chance of winning against Indianapolis), and after the game has been played, the prediction is scored using Brier scores that are adapted to a -75 to +25 scale. (So […]
Read Moremaking probabilistic predictions, continued
There’s a post about the NFL predictions game that I had my students try here. Although they were making predictions every week, I didn’t integrate it into the class at all. (I considered having them figure out how the scores were determined and then discussing it in class–using scaled Brier scores, which is kind of […]
Read Morethe Monty Hall problem
I don’t include the Monty Hall problem in my course, but I have found that, sometimes, someone who knows that I’m teaching inductive logic will ask about it. That happened recently, and we ended up discussed a couple of ways of explaining the solution that I haven’t seen before. So here they are—but first, a quick explanation […]
Read Morea spreadsheet for calculating probabilities
This spreadsheet can be used to find the probability when two, three, four, five, six, and ten individuals are selected from a population. Select “read more” to access the link. ch6 – probabilities
Read More