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making probabilistic predictions

Fivethirtyeight.com has an online prediction game for the 2017 NFL season: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-predictions-game/ . Participants make a probabilistic prediction for each game (e.g., Cincinnati has a 59 percent chance of winning against Indianapolis), and after the game has been played, the prediction is scored using Brier scores that are adapted to a -75 to +25 scale. (So […]

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making probabilistic predictions, continued

There’s a post about the NFL predictions game that I had my students try here. Although they were making predictions every week, I didn’t integrate it into the class at all. (I considered having them figure out how the scores were determined and then discussing it in class–using scaled Brier scores, which is kind of […]

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the Monty Hall problem

I don’t include the Monty Hall problem in my course, but I have found that, sometimes, someone who knows that I’m teaching inductive logic will ask about it. That happened recently, and we ended up discussed a couple of ways of explaining the solution that I haven’t seen before. So here they are—but first, a quick explanation […]

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