## making probabilistic predictions, continued

There’s a post about the NFL predictions game that I had my students try here. Although they were making predictions every week, I didn’t integrate it into the class at all. (I considered having them figure out how the scores were determined and then discussing it in class–using scaled Brier scores, which is kind of …

## concept maps

In The A Game, Sufka explains that concept maps are (1) one good way for students to organize the material that they need to learn and (2) going through the process of making a concept map is an effective way to learn it (pp. 44 – 47—in the section “don’t study like a zombie”). We …

## a quick introduction to deductive logic

This semester I did pp. 235 – 238 in Argument & Inference right after section 1.4 (in chapter 1). This is the handout that I used in class: Appendix_A–handout. And I’m not sure if the slides for appendix A got included with the instructor materials for the textbook, so they’re here: Arg-and-Infer–Appendix_A.

## the Monty Hall problem

I don’t include the Monty Hall problem in my course, but I have found that, sometimes, someone who knows that I’m teaching inductive logic will ask about it. That happened recently, and we ended up discussed a couple of ways of explaining the solution that I haven’t seen before. So here they are—but first, a quick explanation …

## errata

Premise 1 of the induction by confirmation (in chapter 2) should begin with “The hypothesis is …” or “The hypothesis is the following.” If that premise simply states the hypothesis, then the hypothesis can be repeated in the conclusion and the argument will be valid. On p. 66, in line 3 of premise 2, it …

## a spreadsheet for calculating probabilities

This spreadsheet can be used to find the probability when two, three, four, five, six, and ten individuals are selected from a population. Select “read more” to access the link. ch6 – probabilities